The Luck Gap: MLB's Unluckiest Hitters

Statcast expected stats vs. actual results. Luck gap = (xBA−BA) + (xSLG−SLG) + (xwOBA−wOBA) — the more negative, the more a hitter's contact quality has gone unrewarded.

Games through · Data: Baseball Savant / Statcast

Minimum 50 balls in play · qualifiers league-wide

Official awards qualification (MLB Rule 9.22): 3.1 plate appearances per team game — roughly 350–360 PA at this point in the season, applied per player's team. This is the batting-title standard: full-time players only.

hitters currently qualify

Every Reds hitter with a batted ball this season · rows under 50 balls in play are dimmed (small sample)

Methodology follows the Rotowire/Statcast convention: luck gap sums the differences between expected and actual batting average, slugging, and weighted on-base average. Expected stats are modeled from exit velocity and launch angle. Negative = unlucky (contact quality better than results). Positive = fortunate (results better than contact quality).

Source: Baseball Savant expected statistics leaderboard. Savant updates nightly; data reflects games through the previous day. Team and position via MLB Stats API.